배재미디어센터

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump stands at a critical turning point as the war with Iran enters its third week. The core dilemma is whether to press on with the military campaign to achieve his initial objectives or to withdraw in the face of mounting military, diplomatic, and economic burdens.

This conflict, which has seen the United States deeply entangled in a direct military confrontation with Iran, is being assessed as the largest Middle East war in nearly a quarter-century. While joint operations with Israel yielded rapid tactical successes, the shadow of a prolonged war is growing darker.

 

The Scenario of Sustained Warfare

Continuing the fight, even against a militarily weakened adversary, carries significant risks. Global energy markets have already become volatile, and the entire Middle East region is reeling from the shock. Economic pressure on the U.S. and its allies is mounting rapidly. A prolonged conflict raises concerns over potential American casualties, massive fiscal spending, and the fraying of alliances. Crucially, this path directly contradicts Trump’s political mantra of "avoiding entanglement in foreign wars."

 

Declaring Victory and Pulling Back

Choosing to withdraw could alleviate immediate military burdens, but the question of whether core objectives were met remains. The paramount goal— neutralizing Iran’s capability to produce nuclear weapons is widely viewed as — yet unfulfilled. Tactical Successes and Lingering Threats To date, the U.S. and its allies are credited with several military achievements. Iran’s missile arsenal and air defenses have been significantly degraded, and its naval power has been crippled. Furthermore, the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who held power for nearly 40 years, has triggered a seismic shift in the country's power structure. Despite these gains, the situation remains highly unstable:

 

The theocratic regime remains in power, and the successor leadership has vowed to continue hostilities using asymmetrical capabilities. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its various militia groups remain intact, posing threats through cyberattacks, sea mines, and targeted missile strikes.

 

The Nuclear Factor: The Ultimate Variable

The gravest variable is the nuclear issue. Experts fear that if President Trump opts for a withdrawal now, Iran could use its existing stockpile of highly enriched nuclear material to manufacture multiple nuclear weapons in a short period. This outcome would transcend regional conflict, posing a profound threat to the global security order.